Russian Professor Predicts Breakup of US in 2010

Depending on your temperament, you may be either amused or sobered by an article in this morning’s Wall Street Journal about Igor Panarin, a Russian academic and former KGB analyst who has been predicting since 1998 that the US will collapse via economic implosion followed by civil war during the spring of 2010.


For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument — that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. — very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: Russian state media….

In recent weeks, he’s been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. “It’s a record,” says Prof. Panarin. “But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger.”

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations….

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces — with Alaska reverting to Russian control….

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

“It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time.” A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. “It’s not there for no reason,” he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia’s biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt “a pyramid scheme,” and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington’s role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama “can work miracles,” he wrote. “But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.”

It strikes me that one can learn much more about modern Russia from Panarin’s analysis than one can about the US, and that such things are being heavily publicized on state television suggests that reality and the Russian state media have roughly the same relationship they did during the Soviet era.

Perhaps this is my newly acquired local pride, but particularly amusing to me is the suggestion that the Texas Republic would come under the influence of or be absorbed by Mexico. Given the relative economic and political healths of Mexico and the American South, I’d find it much more likely that Mexico would be absorbed by a Texas Republic than vice versa. I am, however, much charmed by the idea of the northern Eastern Seabord joining the EU.

The idea would make a great plot for an novel, but I can’t see it as a realistic scenario in the real world.  The US is far from invincible economically and politically, but it is generally in better shape than the rest of the world, and that’s not the sort of thing that immanent collapses are made of.

66 Responses to Russian Professor Predicts Breakup of US in 2010

  1. Sharon says:

    Hey! As a Virginian, I hope you all down in Texas will hold off Mexico while we stand fast against the EU up this way! Russia will pull back nubs if they grab for Alaska. Canada would surely say, “Do we HAVE to take our share? Americans are so hard to manage.”

    United we stand.

    Back to my hole with my religion and gun…

  2. Ryan Harkins says:

    I’m not so sure that I agree with the divisions. California, Oregan, and Washington I see going their own way together, being a firm Pacific nation, and certainly I’d agree that a fair amount of the Atlantic coastline would indeed form their own group and join the EU. I deny that Canada, China, or Mexico would take hold as sovereign over any division. We Americans are a little too free-wheeling for that to happen. Any takeover would have to be military. But as for the central divisions, I might have shunted off anything east of the Mississippi to the Atlantic Seaboard Committee and Trust Fund, and included Idaho and Utah in the Western American Union. I don’t know about Nevada, but probably most of it, with Las Vegas and Reno breaking off to California.

    In my dreams, Wyoming would be the lead state in the secession, since we have so much fun with our representation in Congress.

    In reality, I started to think that we’d see such a secession, in that the U.S. seems predominantly left-tilting on the coasts, and right-tilting in the middle. One of the things that help fuel resent in the South at the time of the secession just prior to the Civil War was the clear division between North and South on how the states voted in the presidential election. When that clear division seems cropping up between the heavily-populated coasts and the sparsely populated mid-west-to-western region, it starts to feel like the same scenario. Fortunately, the recent election painted the map by far more blue than I expected, so I guess Wyoming will just have secede on her own.

    Maybe we can convince Texas to join, but the relative isolation might make coordination difficult.

  3. Donald R. McClarey says:

    I am sure the Union will be maintained, but if anyone would care to make an offer to Illinois for the city-state of Chicago…

  4. While I don’t see anything like this as being all that likely, I must admit finding the division question very interesting.

    I’d see Idaho sticking with whatever Montana and Wyoming did — and probably Utah going the same way. Nevada leaches so much money from California that Reno and Los Vegas would be strongly incented to stick with the coastal states, though the rest might want to join Texas. I could see Arizona and Southern California east of Barstowe going with Texas as well.

    Another thing this fellow seems not to have taken into account is economic similarity. Texas, Georgia and Florida all have fairly booming tech economies, and Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky benefit a lot from non-union manufacturing. Arkansas could, of course, simply become the Independent Republic of Wal-Mart.

    So I’d tend to see a good chance for a tech and manufacturing-based, moderately conservative and free trading southern republic including the Texas Republic as shown plus the Carolinas, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia. Perhaps the non-DC-suburb part of Virginia as well.

    Then you’d have to sort out the political and cultural differences between the Great Lakes states and the Great Plains & Rocky Mountain states.

  5. j. christian says:

    He doesn’t know what he’s talking about. California is going with the Cylons.

  6. Chris M says:

    This guy’s never been to the South. The Texas Republic, indeed! fah!

    And if you think all the Cubans and Puerto Ricans in Florida are going to knuckle under to Mexico, I’d say you don’t know jack about Hispanics, either.

  7. Rob says:


    Right. Arizonans in league with California. We hate Californians. Actually, I don’t see Arizona tolerating any other state. We would have to go it alone.

    It’s easy for a Russian, who lives in a disordered society that has rarely if ever functioned well except under absolute totalitarianism, to imagine us cutting each others’ throats. We are divided now, but I don’t see any of us willing to drive a tank over our political enemies just yet.

  8. Tito Edwards says:

    I doubt this will happen as well, though it is interesting to note that the same professor predicted Russia’s rise during Yeltsin’s abysmal rule. Hence why he is getting a lot of attention now.

    As far as division is concerned, I find it laughable that Mexico would have ANY control whatsoever. Being that the majority of my extended family are proud Mexicans (living in Mexico), I see the reality of high corruption and a weak central government (considering that the government is created on the French model of a ‘strong central government, this isn’t good news).

    Hispanics cannot be painted as a monolithic group at all. Chris M. is correct on that point for sure. Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans all look down on each other for various reasons. Even among Mexicans, Mexican immigrants look down on Americans of Mexican descent and visa versa (it’s incredibly nasty).

    As far as Canada and China having influence that is beyond fantasy. IF the U.S. were to have “internal conflicts” I can understand Hawaii falling under California or Japan protection, but not under Chinese.

    I certainly see divisions between the two coasts and the rest of America, but if there were to be a break up of the states, seeing the northeastern U.S. (parts of New England) have some of formal relationship with the E.U. seems plausible.

    But for the sake of argument, IF there were to be a Second Civil War, I don’t see how the coastal states would be able to hold-out as combatants against the rest of America.

    Now back to clinging to my guns and religion.

  9. Tito Edwards says:


    Having lived in Arizona for more than 10 years I agree with your analysis. Arizonan’s have contempt for Californians. I’d also have to say that Washingtonians and Oregonians have no love for Californians as well.

    Shoot, Californians don’t like each other for that matter. Northern Californians and Southern Californians don’t like each other. Throw in the central basin and the extreme north I could easily see California breaking up into two to four states (Fredonia, Alta California, Central California, and the city-state of Los Angeles).

  10. j. christian says:

    Enough of this California-bashing. In my experience, there are few people who actually know native Californians. Many Californians are transplants of some stripe or another. They move from NY to west LA, work in The Biz, and think that their little, insular world is “California.” These NY transplants live here a few years, get bored, and move to Washington, Montana, Arizona, etc., and proceed to tick off the locals there. And in turn, those people think these transplants are somehow “Californians.” Sorry to disappoint you all…

  11. Reading this Russian analyst, I can now easily imagine how weird and off-base American analysts sound to native Russians.

  12. Tito Edwards says:

    J. Christian,

    I believe south Floridians have that same attitude towards transplanted New Yorkers in Miami.

    California should be able to put up some sort of quota of New Yorkers moving to California. Can states do that amongst themselves?

  13. Gerard E. says:

    The Professor Doctor’s map looks like nothing more than Government by Sports Mega-Conferences. From Florida to Texas there goes SECLand, populated by large numbers of people still reenacting the Civil War with every football game. Then that large swath of Big 12 Land, taking in Texas, Oklahoma, and anyone else they dadgum well please. Produces high school quarterbacks that conquer throughout the republic. California is heaven knows what. The southern part belongs to USC and the rest to remaining Pac 10 Land. Who woulda thunk it. A third-rate Russian professor, providing minor satisfaction to countrymen afflicted by acute alcoholism, TB and HIV; a pre- WWII infrastructure; and the dreams of tyrants muted by the price of oil- is really a proponent for The College Bowl Structure As We Currently Know It. And no playoff system, thank you very much.

  14. Thomas says:

    At least, Sarah Palin will be able to see Russia from her house!!!

  15. Kathy says:

    Obviously, this professor knows nothing about Tennessee…..(and we ARE in the SEC.) Lol!

  16. Chris M says:

    I just noticed that.. TN and KY join the EU?? Maybe after depopulating both states!

  17. Enough of this California-bashing. In my experience, there are few people who actually know native Californians. Many Californians are transplants of some stripe or another.

    True. As a native born Californian I’d certainly assert that most real Californian’s are the most laid back and easy to live-around folks you could meet. (Though that didn’t stop me from wanting to leave.)

    I could certainly see California breaking up, though. In twenty five years of living in California I never once ventured north of Yosemite, and it was no loss. That LA belongs to a state whose capitol was Sacramento was always a source of utter confusion to me. (Though if there’s someone who should be sent off to be their own city state, it should be the Bay Area. Their mayor already thinks he can make state law.)

  18. […] Darwin’s post on the Russian professor who predicts the breakup of America, reminded me of an intriguing book I read decades ago, The Nine Nations of North America, by Joel Garreau.  It was fun to read although I thought that only three of the regions were close to being true nations:  Dixie, Mexamerica and Quebec. […]

  19. Brent says:

    I don’t like these teams. I really have to play with California?

    -Arizona Guy

  20. Andrew says:

    This may be an interesting theory that hopefully remains that way. If you’ve watched any of the short-lived series “Jericho” you may see some similarities between Panarin’s theory and the show. The gist of “Jericho” is the country divides into six nations after a domestic terrorist attack in which 24 major metropolitan areas are destroyed by nuclear bombs. It appears that Mr. Panarin has watched the same show or provided part of his theory to the producers. I hope that art doesn’t replicate life in this particular instance. “Do not tread on me,” Mr. Panarin.

  21. Tito Edwards says:

    Russia will suffer their own civil war before it ever happens to the United States.

  22. Zak says:

    The Central North American Republic would have a larger population than Canada (by around 20 million). I don’t think we’d fall under the influence of the Canucks (although I live in NoVA now, I’d move back to the Midwest to get out of the EU. I think it’s all a scheme to talk about how Russia should get Alaska back (does a certain Russian academic have a crush on Sarah Palin?).

  23. Tito Edwards says:

    The Russians sold Alaska fair and square and it’s ours until the end of time. If anything we may end up purchasing Kamchatka before we let go of Alaska.

    For the record, Texas doesn’t recognize Alaska.

  24. Donald R. McClarey says:

    Powerline has interesting comments by Mark Falcoff on the article by the Russian professor.

    “When I was a graduate student of international relations at Princeton decades ago I remember one of my professors, the late Harold Sprout, explaining that one way to analyze a foreign country’s behavior was to appreciate its own historical perspective. Given what has happened to Russia in the past two decades, its idea that the U.S. is a fragile empire of disparate entities (while wrong) is at least understandable. In many ways indeed it is a projection onto its supposed rival its own experiences.”

  25. Captain X says:

    Yoh bros. Why don’t youse rebels just split along the Mason – Dixie line? Seems fine and dandy for bible faced hypocrites

  26. Dminor says:


    Actually, the Russian “prediction” reminds me of the world portrayed in Robert Heinlein’s Friday. Heinlein’s divisions certainly made more sense. Given that it was a Russian doing the predicting, I was also reminded of the old miniseries Amerika.

  27. Utah says:

    Why would Utah want to go with California? People would still come here to ski, snowboard, visit our parks, do business, etc. Our economy wouldn’t be affected at all!

    We have a large air force base here, the productions plants and companies for the US space program, etc., and a lot of Utahns are already military trained.

    We’re small, so why would we want to be steamrolled politically by the West Coast, especially since we’re more conservative?

    Plus, California is looking like it’s on the road to bankruptcy while Utah’s managed to weather the economic storm fine and we have minimal state taxes and still have sound state finances!

    Utah would be better off by itself.

    And without half of our income going to the Feds or California, we’d be rich, too! People would flock to the Mountain West! We could defend ourselves with air superiority over the western desert but wouldn’t need to since California could take the hit if China decides to invade.

    And all we have to do to hold back others is hold onto the nukes stored here and have Thiokol Co. (which makes the shuttle booster rockets) maintain and produce ICBMs and larger nations wouldn’t want to invade us; we’re small, anyway! Thus, we’d make the risk too high for the benefits a foreign nation (or former US state) would have from trying to take Utah.

    Utah would prosper in this scenario.

    This guy’s crazy but it is kind of fun to think about.

  28. Redcoat says:

    The US is a third world economy and has been living on credit for years. A nation where half are banged up, live in pverty with no medical care, rely on tips to make a living and have 3 jobs to make ends meet is headed for self destruction. The Foundation myth that Americans swallow is a smokescreen for the fact that the Revolutionery war was in fact Americas first civil war, between loyalists and rebels. When the rebels were seen to be enriching themselves by confiscationg loyalists property and renaging on their debts the undecided followed the example of the lawless. That is the American weakness, everything has been seized and not paid for. From the genocide of the Native Americans to the non paying of income tax until 1915 allowing the robber barons to prosper. America was not a proper democracy until 1830. The land that was ceded to them was as a result of The Treaty of Vienna, they never won the land in battle. At the start of World War 1 Belgium had a bigger army than the Americans. America has lived beyond its means for years with no competition from abroad the auto industry has been churning out obselite gas guzzling trucks posing as vehicles for years. The only way an American can get medical cover is thru his employer, so if he’s not employed he’s not covered. It’s ironic that the temper tantrum of not wanting to pay taxes for the protection of the Royal Navy has led to an economy which spends trillions of tax dollars on defence. At the end of the war of independance there were more Americans serving in the British Forces tahn Americans in the revolutionery army. The colonies all go the same way. Unleashed to govern themslves they become corrupt and turn on each other. American businessmen appear to model their practices on those of the mafia. Madoff is surely destined to appear in the Wall Street Hall of Fame (or should that be shame?)

  29. Donald R. McClarey says:

    Thank God for 1776. Without America Great Britain might well now be one of the lesser provinces of the German Reich.

    As to your opinion of America, I prefer that of a greater Englishman who wore a redcoat in his youth:

    “No American will think it wrong of me if I proclaim that to have the United States at our side was to me the greatest joy. I could not foretell the course of events. I do not pretend to have measured accurately the martial might of Japan, but now at this very moment I knew the United States was in the war, up to the neck and in to the death. So we had won after all! Yes, after Dunkirk; after the fall of France; after the horrible episode of Oran; after the threat of invasion, when, apart from the Air and the Navy, we were an almost unarmed people; after the deadly struggle of the U-boat war — the first Battle of the Atlantic, gained by a hand’s breadth; after seventeen months of lonely fighting and nineteen months of my responsibility in dire stress, we had won the war. England would live; Britain would live; the Commonwealth of Nations and the Empire would live. How long the war would last or in what fashion it would end, no man could tell, nor did I at this moment care. Once again in our long Island history we should emerge, however mauled or mutiliated, safe and victorious. We should not be wiped out. Our history would not come to an end. We might not even have to die as individuals. Hitler’s fate was sealed. Mussolini’s fate was sealed. As for the Japanese, they would be ground to powder. All the rest was merely the proper application of overwhelming force. The British Empire, the Soviet Union, and now the United States, bound together with every scrap of their life and strength, were, according to my lights, twice or even thrice the force of their antagonists. No doubt it would take a long time. I expected terrible forfeits in the East; but all this would be merely a passing phase. United we could subdue everybody else in the world. Many disasters, immeasurable cost and tribulation lay ahead, but there was no more doubt about the end.

    Silly people — and there were many, not only in enemy countries — might discount the force of the United States. Some said they were soft, others that they would never be united. They would fool around at a distance. They would never come to grips. They would never stand blood-letting. Their democracy and system of recurrent elections would paralyze their war effort. They would be just a vague blur on the horizon to friend or foe. Now we should see the weakness of this numerous but remote, wealthy, and talkative people. But I had studied the American Civil War, fought out to the last desperate inch. American blood flowed in my veins. I thought of a remark which Edward Grey had made to me more than thirty years before — that the United States is like “a gigantic boiler. Once the fire is lighted under it there is no limit to the power it can generate.” Being saturated and satiated with emotion and sensation, I went to bed and slept the sleep of the saved and thankful.”

    – Winston S. Churchill, _The Grand Alliance_

  30. Redcoat says:

    The American people revere Sir Winston, it helps that he had a pushy American mother. The British people on the other hand voted him out of office at the first opportunity. It amazes me that so much adulation is given to Sir Winston by Americans who should really go down on their knees and give thanks for Roosevelt, truly he was our and your saviuor, for without his political will, Churchill would have become what many expected, a failed politicion. His grasp of strategy was non too good given his record of attacking the Turks during World war 1 and inflicting murderous casualties on Commenwealth troops at Gallipoli.

    It is always painful for a nation to confront the truth, Americans are as much victims of their own propagan as were the Germans and Russians who were led by the nose into Fascism and Communism. After the fall of these two, there are still those who worship Hitler and Stalin.

    My view is that the original 13 colonies plus Florida should come back into the fold. Imagine the untold wealth this would generate for the inhabitants. Not in the EU as the UK is not, but part of Team GB. From day 1 they would get free medical care, and be entitled to any number of welfare benefits which would really raise up the under class (not just promises as given by Obama). Americans from the other states would flock to a properous economy when the dollar is only fit for wallpaper. In truth Americans are seen abroad as rather gullible, niave, folks who don’t have a good grasp of History or Geography. On the other hand American Business people are regarded as Mafia who wil suck you dry of every last dollar.
    North America includes Canada, and their are still plenty of Empire Loyalists alive and well both in the States and Canada. New Yorkers whose ancestors served in the !st Royal New York Rifles are combing geoneolgy sites to find compatriots. (don’t believe me? just Google it)
    I sense that the good Dr does not believe me, this is not my personal opinion but historical fact. If the 50 States were soveriegn countries you would be far better off in what is in effect a Free Trade Zone. That is all that you have got. A 50 country free trading zone but you introduced a whole new layer of buracracy on yoursleves in the shape of federal taxes. It is truly amazing that despite the song and dance you made about tea tax you now hand over trillions to a governing burearcay and the only way you can some of your tax dollar back is by lobbying and pork barell politics..
    When the UK introduced the NHS under the elected government that took over from Churchill Doctors surgeries were overwhelmed by women presenting with prolapsed wombs. Those who could not afford treatment used towels and rags to hold the womb in place. What is hidden in the US?

    Churchill had a job of holding the Allies together in WW2, the Americans think there industrial might prevailed but in truth the real slaughter was on the Eastern Front where Mother Russia lost 30 million. Churchill sucked up to Stalin as much as he did to Roosevelt, he had too.

  31. Donald R. McClarey says:

    “The British people on the other hand voted him out of office at the first opportunity. ”

    After the war was won in 1945. Then, after a few years of socialist government, they voted him back into office as Prime Minister in 1951. They also voted for him overwhelmingly in 2002 in a BBC poll as the greatest Briton of all time.

  32. Redcoat says:

    We had to have a socialist government after WW2 because the Liberals left in power after WW1 promised “homes fit for heroes” but failed to deliver. Churchill was past it when he returned and was in his dotage, the Tories used him to get re-elected.
    Meanwhile back to the first American civil war go here to see the list of American units in the British Army.

    This is a list of British units in the American Revolutionary War (1775-1783) who fought against the American rebels and their French and Spanish allies in the North American colonies, including battles in Florida and the West Indies. In addition to the regular army it includes German auxiliary units (known collectively as Hessians), and militia and provincial units formed from Loyalists, West Indians, and Canadians.

    No battle honours were ever awarded to British regiments who fought in America as it was seen by the British to be a civil war.

    The freed black slaves, the black loyalists, who came over to the British side were rewarded with thier own country, Sierra Leone, and named its capital Freetown. Those black slaves who remained in the rebel hands continued in serfdom until the second American civil war. Some would say the fate of black Americans has not changed much summed up by the phrase, “They swapped the Southern rope for the Northern dope”.

  33. Redcoat says:

    The Black Loyalists see

    Rebels and Redcoats: The American Revolutionary War
    Published to accompany a four-part BBC TV series – written and presented by military historian, Richard Holmes, this book offers a somewhat controversial and revisionist view. Most people regard the American Revolutionary War of the 1775-83 (also known as the War of Independence) as a popular struggle for liberty against an oppressive colonial power. This book demonstrates that it was in fact America’s first civil war.

  34. Donald R. McClarey says:

    Redcoat, every American school child knows that the Tories fought for the English. This of course does not detract from the victory of the Patriots but rather magnifies the glory of the victory since they had to contend not only with a foreign foe but also a domestic enemy. The Tories throughout the war were utterly dependent upon the English and showed a striking inability to control territory without protection from the Royal Army. When organized into military units by the English and trained as regulars the Tories proved as effective on the battlefield as the English units they fought beside. Without English assistance the Tories proved totally ineffective to raise armies of their own and wage their own war against the Patriots. Their few attempts to do so ended quickly in routs. When the English decided to toss in the towel, the Tories who fought with them meekly went into exile rather than attempt to carry on the struggle on their own.

    As to Churchill, he was more effective in his old age than most British Prime Ministers at any age. The turn to the socialists in 1945 was part of the process by which Great Britain has been turned into Weenie Britain with a nannie state that crushes intiative and breeds hopelessness. Thatcher, your last great Prime Minister, was a ray of light, but she was unable to undo all the misteps that have made Britain a third-rate power.

  35. Redcoat says:

    Greetings to all those who are in search
    of Americans who remained Loyal
    to the British Crown during the
    War for Independence

  36. Redcoat says:

    I am not running Churchill down, that would be silly but in discussing history and miliatary campaigns you have to take in the strategic objective. What exactly was Churhills war aims? The UK declared war on nazi Germany following the german army invasion of Poland. After the war Poland was “liberated” by the Soviet Union not the UK so there is a case to say the UK failed to achieve its objective. Americans woke up after WW2 and decided to run down the British Empire, they wanted one of their own, and the principle architect was John Foster Dulles. In no way could he be described as a friend of the UK. So again as the British Empire faded away into a Commonwealth there is a case for saying that Churhills war aim of maintaining the British Empire came to nothing. So that’s two failures on his part.
    War has to have a point, that is why there was never any danger of the Cold war escalating into a hot war. Neither the US or the Soviet Union could see any point in inheriting a nucluer wasteland.

    California has a GDP just below that of the UK, it seems to many that a prosperous state such as CA is subsidising the non productive states. Some of your states have a lower population than we have in our major cities.

  37. crankycon says:

    California has a GDP just below that of the UK, it seems to many that a prosperous state such as CA is subsidising the non productive states. Some of your states have a lower population than we have in our major cities

    wow, you’re not even remotely familiar with our culture or how our political system operates, are you?

  38. Redcoat,

    It’s possible to find the endorsement of impossible historical political grievances charming, but you seem to have your arguments a little tangled up. For instance, you charge that the US is guilt on the genocide of the American Indians, and yet I don’t get the impression that you want to return Canada to the French and the Native Americans, nor that you want to evacuate all whites out of Australia and New Zealand.

    Similarly, you blast the US for having a sky high national debt, calling it a pyramid scheme and a third world economy — yet you then praise California whose state debt is so bad that it may need to declare bankruptcy in the next year or two, if it isn’t bailed out by the Federal Government. Not to mention that California was one of the prime offenders in trashing the national economy with the real estate mess over the last six years. (Which was the reason this native Californian bailed for the saner home market of Texas five years ago — where I bought a home that is still worth more than a paid for it and the economy is humming along.)

    The charm of the Torry cause is mostly a conservative one, yet you try to wile people to support it with promises of a socialized welfare state.

    Still, as I say, quixotic historical causes charm my conservative instincts. So I’ll entertain your advocacy of the US rejoining Britain — after you blokes kick out these imported pretenders from Germany. Get some descendants of James II on the throne, or better yet get rid of the silliness of the whole last thousand years and find some descendants of Harold Godwinson and Edith Swanneck.

  39. Redcoat says:

    The verge of bankruptcy looms large for the USA as a whole, not just CA, and all because of the American Financial system lending money to people who have no hope of paying it back. Everything is on credit. Other countries in the same predicament are those with dollar reserves. The UK has no reserves linked to the dollar. Apart from anything else I resist the temptation to go with the herd mentality, so called experts, like this Russian Professor, have a 50/50 chance of being proved right/wrong as the case may be. How long ago was it that “experts” were predicting that oil would go to 200 USD? We in the UK are grateful for the US armed services who laid down their lives in WW2, but, in reality, you were acting then as loyalists as we fought our old foe Germany. To say that the US saved the UK from becoming part of the Reich is like a Brit saying that we saved you from speaking French and Spanish (although you seem intent on importing Spanish) because the Royal Navy defeated the combined French and Spanish fleet at Trafalgar and our Royal Rifle brigades who had learnt their trade in the American war, defeated the French at Waterloo. We don’y make that claim because it is too sweeping a generalisation. Prior to the outbreak of WW2 America had many pro German elements. Go to Youtube and dig up the old archive footage of American Nazi footage. “From Detroit they came, from Chigago they came” and so on.
    I love America and visit many times a year, but when I leave I always have the same thought. “It’s a beautiful country but its wasted on the Americans”.

    I was last in Boston and Rhode Island. It’s always the same, the American motorist appears straight out of the 1950’s. For a start the roads in RI are appalling, full of potholes even on the main roads, plus the signage is laughable, as it is allove the US. As a drive sedately along I am overtaken by hill billies in old crocks of SUV’s doing a reckless 80mph in a lump of old iron while shouting into their cellphones. Later I drive past the carnage with a babys pram strewn across the road. This reminds me of the phrase, “What’s the difference between an SUV and a hedgehog” Why, a hedgehog has the pricks on the outside.

  40. Tito Edwards says:


    Being descended from Welshman I demand the return of Cymru, and for that matter the rest of Britain to the original (aborigenes in your language) to the Welsh. We have been part of an apartheid system of being forcebly moved to the fringes of Britain and demand our rightful lands returned to us for posterity.

    I demand that all the Germans (Angles and Saxons) and Danes (Jutes) that infest the holy land that is Greater Wales return from whence they came to rectify the wrongs imposed upon us Celts in the name of Owain Glyndŵr.

    The Brythoniaid will rise again!

    Sounds a bit off-base doesn’t it? That’s how we ‘colonials’ read your comments.

  41. I must admit, there’s a sort of endearing innocence to Redcoats’ pride in the English social welfare institutions. Perhaps he doesn’t realize that when American progressives try to sell the idea of socialized medicine to the populace here they always assure us: “Don’t worry, it won’t be nearly as bad as the UK’s NHS.”

    Still, lest anything think that one has to sound like a yahoo in order to be all Up With the English, you can always check out Flanders and Swan’s “The English Are Best”

    From back when England was comparatively civilized.

  42. Donald R. McClarey says:

    “To say that the US saved the UK from becoming part of the Reich is like a Brit saying that we saved you from speaking French and Spanish (although you seem intent on importing Spanish) because the Royal Navy defeated the combined French and Spanish fleet at Trafalgar and our Royal Rifle brigades who had learnt their trade in the American war, defeated the French at Waterloo.”

    Napoleon had no designs on America as he proved through the Louisiana purchase. If he had been foolish enough to send a force over against us, I suspect we would have given them the same reception as the elite of the Royal Army under Packenham received from Jackson and his backwoodsmen at New Orleans in 1815. I do feel grateful for the stand the Brits made against the Nazis from 1939-1941 when there was absolutely no hope of victory and they fought on anyway against an evil second to none. That truly was their finest hour.

  43. Donald R. McClarey says:

    I might also note that my great Uncle Bill, a Newfoundlander, fought in the Royal Army from 1939-1945. When asked why he was enlisting he said, “Someone has to teach the Limies how to fight!” My own father considered enlisting in the Royal Army after marrying my mother in Newfoundland, but when told that he would have to renounce his American citizenship he declined.

  44. rob says:

    -To say that the US saved the UK from becoming part of the Reich is like a Brit saying that we saved you from speaking French and Spanish (although you seem intent on importing Spanish)-

    This from a man in whose country many areas are now run under sharia law. We’ll do just fine absorbing the Latin American population, thank you. Talk to us after they put your wife in a burqha, dhimmi.

  45. John J says:

    Anyone who thinks that the EU would take Kentucky and Tennessee or that anyone in Texas would be under “Mexican Influence” needs to have a background check done on their credentials. I don’t care how many degrees he has in Russia or how often State TV there interviews him for these beliefs. This man should take a vacation here. Maybe he’ll go back and suggest to the Kremlin that they put Russia up for sale.

  46. Redcoat says:

    Tito Edwards – I’m with you on that one as I am Welsh born myself and find it hard to accept the present Prince of Wales who is an English imposter. A penny for your thoughts and a full and frank discussion has been beneficial to us all without descending into personal abuse. It is always very dangerous to tackle Americans on the foundation myth because it is embedded in their hearts like reinforced concrete and surrounded by a peculiar nationilstic fervour that brooks no challenge. Many myths have been perpetuated by the media and this is something I always encourage my American friends to disassemble.

    The myth that parts of the UK are under Muslim law is like saying some parts are under Catholic law. Practising Catholics where ever they live around the world look to the Pope as thier leader. Muslims look to thier spiritual leaders in the same way. This is completely different to having an alien law imposed on you which obviously is not happening. I don’t want to get drawn into to this but I understand the official Catholic line on abortion is pro-life, notwithstanding this, women in the UK are legally entitled to an abortion, a plane lands in England from the Irish Republic every day carrying women coming over for terminations.

    I simply wanted to opine that the Atlantic States would do better to become part of the UK not the EU. Joining the EU would mean swapping American Federalism for European Federalism. Not a lot of difference there then.

    Despite our true Welsh Prince having been decapitated by the English, his head par-boiled and exhibited on a stake on London Bridge, today Wales has its own Parliament, as does Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Its called devolved Government and that is probably what the Atlantic States would enjoy. Thier own elected representatives caring for the interests of their own state. Those who live in Cornwall are treated as part of England.

    The media easily whips up mass hysteria, after all the news bread and butter is “death, shock, and horror” and “If it bleeds, it leads” Tabloid papers leaven this with “Human interest stories” I have felt for some time that the Americans really believe that the UK is in imminent threat of being taken over by Islam. Fear not, the zenith of the Caliph was when Southern Spain was ruled by the Moors, when they tried to advance further north they were defeated by the French.

    Donald R. McClarey – Napoleon had no designs on America but he had plenty on England. It was the French Navy at Yorktown and the French army that sealed the fate of Cornwallis, redoubt 10 was stormed by dissident French units who were promised that their old unit, which had been disbanded, would be reformed if they carried the redoubt.
    Without the French allies Washington may not have enjoyed the success he did. The Spanish as always jumped in to have a go as well. In defeating Napoleon the British learnt form the American campaign of the importance of aimed shot and taking cover. At that time the accepted practice with a musket was the volley and usually because the blood was up, without waiting to reload, the line broke into a bayonet charge.

    Your hunters and backwoodsmen fought differently, not in the European model, as the British Army was trained for. They took cover behind trees and aimed shot picking off the British Officers first. As a result the British Fusiliers then developed into Riflemaen and adopted the same American practice and used it on the battlefieds of Europe against the French who without this lesson still used volleys. For that we have to be thankful.

  47. Tre says:

    I find the professor theory interesting and in some ways a very big possibility. Think about it, as we are trying to bailout industries to keep our country afloat and we are believing in a new president and hoping that America is prepared for a minority race to lead us into a better future.

    Everybody keeps mentioning that America will not allow this to happen, but we as Americans have also become very spoiled and don’t seem to want to work anymore but expect things to be handed to us. When we don’t get what we want, we find an easier route. What is easier than fixing a trouble country – allowing another country to fix our lives for us.

    For the U.S. to break apart, we are more than likely not believing in the American dream and are in such a depression that we no longer want to try.

    I am not fighting for the Professor’s theory, but I am only speaking about what could be possbile sometime. To believe that it absolutely won’t happen is to be in denial as every country and government has to rise and fall. Whether we do it together or just give up is going to depend on what morals and values we have invested into the future generations.

  48. Ryan Harkins says:

    California has a GDP just below that of the UK, it seems to many that a prosperous state such as CA is subsidising the non productive states. Some of your states have a lower population than we have in our major cities.

    Be careful about linking productivity to population. Wyoming has the least population in the union, only around 500,000 (counting tourists), and yet we run a huge budget surplus thanks to our resources. California for a number of years has either run a budget deficit or has barely gotten by. Moreover, due to their laws, they can’t provide all of their own energy needs. We in Wyoming launder our energy through Oregon, which is then presented to California as “green”. You could claim that we Wyomingites do more than our fair share.

    But there’s no problem with any one state subsidizing other states in the union, anymore than there’s a problem with a rich district in a city subsidizing the poor district. That’s part and parcel of being a union.

  49. Tito Edwards says:


    You won’t find malice here at American Catholic (I hope). Your ideas and thoughts are certainly provocative and welcomed here.

    I’m not to bothered by Wales ajoined to England, but I find it insincere to put a German as the Prince of Wales, especially the current holder since he holds almost no Christian values at heart.

    I’m aware of the devolved government under Tony Blair, though if I were an Englishman I would have fought it tooth and nails. From a secular point of view it just adds another layer of unnecessary bureaucracy.

    I’ve only recently have been studying and learning more about my wonderful Welsh ancestry and I do like where Wales stands now, attached as unified kingdom under English with the Scots and Irish. Though I strongly oppose ANY integration whatsoever into the E.U.

    In Jesus, Mary, & Joseph,


  50. Redcoat says:


    Llandilo was the coldest part of the UK last night with a temperature of -14C. It is easy to get to South Wales on the M4 motorway which runs from West London, past Heathrow, practically to Ammanford. Our family along with most inhabitants of these islands have oftened discussed emmigrating. My namesake sailed to Madagascar in 1792, some family went to Fargo, USA, in the 1800’s, but I decided against North America after hearing that an Uncle who went to Canada was killed in the first week when two trains met head on. Many Welsh Christians left to make a promised land, they still speak Welsh in parts of Patagonia, South America. Simon Jenkins was going to write a book on 1,000 Welsh churches, but he was pipped by someone who brought out 100 churches of Wales. He now has a book called “Wales”

    A hat tip to Wyoming, I don’t know if that State was in the dust bowl, but as a family of Welsh farmers, the intensive cultivation of US farmland was hotly debated. Big can be good but sometimes it pays to think small. The US, to us, has the advantage of being 50 countries in middle America, who have sufficient mass to trade with each other. The disadvantage is lack of competition, and the US auto industry is an example.

    I would say the Welsh are happy with their lot. With a devolved Parliament the nationlistic urge is curbed, while introducing beneficial laws for the Welsh (such as free medicines, prescribed by Doctor’s, something they also enjoy in Scotland, so much so, that some English towns on the borders want to join Wales or Scotland) while we still have the embracing arm of being governed centrally.

    If the Atlantic States did revert to the UK I now see a problem, namely many descendants of loyalist families would probably sue for the return of land, property, and businesses confiscated (stolen) by the rebels. These claims could end in in the European courts which are processing many similar claims of Eastern Europeans who had their estates confiscated by the Communist Soviets.

    The hypothesis of the break up of the USA is just that, but nothing can be ruled out, after all our own Defence plans includes the possibility of another war with the US
    with Russia as allies. Russia now free of Communism sits on the fence between Europe and Asia. Under Soviet domination it resembled the US with all countries combining to form one whole. This is where their manpower came from, mainly Asia. Now it is split apart and and we can see what the Russian Proffessor is getting at. The Baltic States favour Europe. Swedes fly and sail to Estonia to do their shopping. European countries are standing in line to join NATO and the EU. What we see today in the break up of the Soviet Union could then be a possibility for the US. But, while the Soviet countries stayed as countries, with their own culture, history, religion and culture, suppressed and now released, the US States are uniformily the same, up to now sharing a common language (albeit somewhat mangled) and an Anlgo Saxon heritage, so the balance is the other way.

  51. Wesley says:

    Nice welcome to join the eu.
    we can use more people to start a war and kill everyone agains us.
    Like: Tito Edwards and Redcoat enz, enz.

  52. Matthew says:

    Hey!! What does this russian think he’s doing? Everyone down south knows that we’d stick together! It’s time to rise again! lol -Arkansas

  53. GWB says:

    The south will rise again –

    There is no way that wealthy states will pay for the debt of liberal states in the north. I dont see a civil war as much as I just see a sucession of Texas followed by about 6 other states to form their own country.

    The USA is not going to last- as much as it hurts to say.

  54. Clyde says:

    9:45 am

    my soul does see…before the peace
    another zugzwang activity.
    it’s all to real;
    we’re failing with direction.
    corporate scandals and corruption thunders
    confidence in the dollar continues to wane,
    a 4th marker of crude happens on exchange
    with alarming rise
    the petro euro allures the eyes of dubai.
    nymex and ipe must do
    what naturally comes next,
    and this leaves the [u.s.]
    with little trust;
    executed by the posion pawn,
    a trick box of economic destruction.
    abaddon thunder
    behind the veil
    has stolen foreign reserves
    and the dollar no longer services debt
    through investors on dragon shores.
    my soul does see…the collapse of
    [u.s.] soveriegnty.

  55. im african american and my dad mom is half french and black from New Orleans and just found out we have German in us as well and Native American on mom side. My major is Astrophysics and its my passion and there is a cause and effect for everything we do says:

    Newton has nothing to do with climate I just like inventors, philosophers, poets. Sorry im a nerd. I love history also. To me life is a paradox. Ill leave im just a 20 something year old in the the medical field. By the way you guys some on here have great agruments, would make good lawyers. ;)! Merci!

  56. Allo! Tiffy says:

    Sorry, im trying to learn more about our economy and politics and I found some nice people who responded. Can someone tell me what do mean a cival war is going to happen so I can book a plane trip to Europe now and start packing. :`(

  57. J T says:

    Do you honestly believe they will let Mexico just have Texas with all the oil?? And some of the largest US military bases and commands are in the areas predicted to go to Mexico??? Come on, Mexico can’t take care of itself now. What has this Professor correctly predicted in the past anyway?

    The economy and climate changes should be watched, but I am not about to loose any sleep over a civil war happening in the horizon.

  58. Allo! Tiffy says:

    Yesterday they said climate was fraud and it wasn’t a concern and they backed it up with websites and it was on the news and that they are just trying to scare americans. I got bashed for it. 😦

  59. clayton says:

    Well, its December 15 with no civil war. It sounds like another conspiracy theory out the window. Of course Pak Alert Press is saying something about Obama organizing something around one million troops for possible civil war by the end of winter 2010. Well see.

  60. clayton davies says:

    This is December 29, 2009. The Russian professor said that civil war would break out in November of 2009. He also said that if this did not happen he has a ready explanation. Civil war has not started. We are still here. I looked for the explanation and have not found it. Anyone know where it is?

  61. Thomas says:

    Our Lady of Fatima said “Nations will be annihilated”.
    She specifically didn’t say in what way they will be annihilated. Very bluntly, I would take the Russian Professor seriously, as the Church say’s, God will not be mocked!!!
    Abortion, 50% divorce rate. lukewarmness especially by us “Roman Catholic’s, pathetic LOW numbers of men and women willing to sacrifice themselves( but willing to sacrifice themselves for worldly things, career’s that most likely won ‘t help them get to Heaven actually for real when they die ) for the Kingdom of God by joining Roman Catholic Religious Order’s.
    Pathetic low numbers of Roman Catholic’s going to confession every week and or a month thus presumption they are receiving Holy Communion worthily.
    People having more faith in secular medical than than in the power of the keys, namely Christ Jesus healed people from being crippled, etc by absolving them of their sins.
    Sin’s of the3 parent’s and their little children get to suffer the consequences because the parent’s or grand parent’s or great grand parents ( sin’s of the parent’s past on to the 3rd or 4th generation ) didn’t make enough satisfactory amends either by invincible innocent ignorance or by culpable ignorance or actually knew and blew it off as it was nothing.

  62. […] Professor Predicts Breakup of US in 2010 Russian Professor Predicts Breakup of US in 2010 Russian professor predicts that US will collapse via economic implosion followed by civil war […]

  63. John says:

    Son of a gun! Looks like he was right! Look at what’s happening in Arizona – the federal government has refused to protect its citizens! Look what’s happened in DC – a socialist is now president of the US!!

  64. Patrick says:

    The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, how does a nation that is ethnically diverse from sea to shining sea devoid along ethnic lines? This guy is a fool think god he is one of their best! How will Mexico gain control over the South East? Mexico is close to spliting into different parts not The USA. Why don’t he just call it an Aztec empire? I would think they would go for Arazona before the South East USA really this guy is stupid and knows little about the history of North America. Mexico has white flight trust me I am a Taxi driver in Austin, Texas it is plan to see they are fleeing Mexico and buying homes in west Austin. The US immigration problem makes it hard for people of Native decent to come here legally not people of European decent. How would that whole Mexican thing go over in the South East a place where Native American ancestry is very common? Oh yeah and the kill ratio is about 100-1 btw really dude get real!

  65. jules says:

    I just wanted to make a comment here. I read only a few posts but enough to give my opinion. I live in Canada and believe me Canada is in no situation to swallow up any part of the US. What we are all afraid of including the American people is this NAU known as the North American Union. We all don’t want any part of it. We are all different even though we have a lot in common with the US. We are great neighbors and want to keep it that way but we are very different in our outlooks and politics. There is going to be a great deal of problems in the US and it is just starting to come to fruition and there will be problems here in Canada as well since so much is multicultural. There are problems in Europe as well and nobody is going to not feel the lumps of what is coming. If you follow the alternative news instead of just mainstream you will learn so much more. All this is done by design by the globalists (secret societies and all) to get us at each others throats. If we don’t jump on one another then we win and they lose. Who do you think did away with our jobs and outsourced them to China, India, etc. Mexico is suffering badly folks. Lately Russian military aircraft have been invading our airspace here in Canada so that is a worry. I do know that they are in tanglements with our government over the Arctic to want to take some of it for their oil drilling as well as some European countries. I don’t put anything past anybody anymore for what I know what is going on. I do know that the US is bankrupt and printing money to survive which will lead to Weimar Germany type of hyperinflation. The US was the greatest economy of the world and now look at what happened. Honestly it will take more decades to pay back if not longer than what any of us will ever see in our lifetime. I do know that Russia and China have their sites on the US so everyone wake up and not let the globalists and secret societies of the world turn us all into slaves. Remember the book in school called 1984 well people that is what is happening and I used to think that it was a very stupid book – fiction – well come to find out it wasn’t fiction but reality. Take care everybody and hold on for the ride. The world’s leaders are only puppets and the real power is behind the screen.

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