Predictions for 2010

Here are my predictions for 2010.  I hope I have a better track record than I did for my predictions for 2009.

1.   The Republicans will take back the House in November, either outright on election day, or through party switches between election day and the swearing in of the new Congress in 2011.

2.   The Republicans will take back the Senate in November, either outright on election day, or through party switches between election day and the swearing in of the new Congress in 2011.  I am assuming that Joe Lieberman will caucus with the Republicans if the Republicans have 50 seats.

3.   The economy will continue in the doldrums next year with the unemployment rate not getting lower than 9%.

4.    Regime change will occur in Iran with the Mullahs being toppled by a popular insurrection.

5.    Pope Benedict’s Anglican Initiative will prove amazingly successful  with ever increasing numbers of Anglicans and Episcopalians swimming the Tiber to participate.

6.    Two cabinet members in the Obama administration will resign.

7.    US forces will replicate the success of the surge in Iraq in Afghanistan.

8.     At least two states will default on some of their debt obligations during the coming year.

9.     A Draft Palin movement for 2012 will gather steam.

10.   A major breakthrough in the development of cold fusion technology will be announced.

11.    A major financial scandal will erupt involving Tarp funds being used to bribe members of Congress.

12.    McClarey will be wrong on some of his predictions.

22 Responses to Predictions for 2010

  1. Elaine Krewer says:

    Good predictions there Don. I agree with 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 (and I bet Illinois is one of them), and, of course, 12 🙂

    I am not so sure about 2, 4, 9, or 10. Or 11. I also would add a #13: there WILL be another successful or at least attempted major terrorist attack on U.S. soil, similar to the Detroit bombing incident or the Fort Hood massacre. They keep trying and sooner or later, unfortunately, they’re going to succeed.

    I will also add a #14: at least one prominent pro-abortion “Catholic” politician will be publically banned from recieving Communion by his or her bishop before year’s end.

  2. Donald R. McClarey says:

    I agree with you Elaine that doubtless Illinois will be in the forefront of state bankruptcy.

    Another successful attack on the Continental US is probably a safe bet.

    I agree with you on 14, and I would also not be surprised if a Catholic pro-abort political figure decides to recant his or her pro-abort stance. The politics on this issue are beginning to shift, and I can imagine some Catholic pro-abort Democrat from a Red or Purple State deciding to seize the initiative.

  3. I’ve got to admit to being highly skeptical on 2. The Democrats are getting trounced right now, but I don’t know if the right set of seats are open for a flip.

    On 7, do you mean Iraq rather than Iran, or are you making a much bigger prediction? 🙂

  4. Phillip says:

    Cold fusion technology! You can already check off a wrong prediction. 🙂

  5. Donald R. McClarey says:

    I realize Phillip that many people put cold fusion technology in the same category as perpetual motion machines, but I think the technology is attainable. The US Navy has been doing some interesting work in this area, and I think we are getting close.

  6. Paul Zummo says:

    Numbers 1 and 2 are somewhat dependent on number 3. If you’re right about number 3, then I think #1 is a lock and #2 is a possibility, though I still don’t see a 10-seat swing this coming year in the Senate.

  7. Phillip says:

    Okay. I’ll save the smiley face for next year.

  8. Donald R. McClarey says:

    I have no objection as to smiley faces regarding any of my predictions that do not come to pass! 🙂

  9. Pinky says:

    I hope that 1 and 2 are right. My bet, the GOP and the Blue Dogs will constitute a majority in the House, but the institution will still be run by Speaker Pelosi. The Republicans will take 6 seats in the Senate and pick up one or two converts. We’ll see two years of paralysis in Congress, and Obama will run against the Washington establishment in 2012.

  10. R.C. says:

    ColdFusion technology has indeed improved. Version 9.0 even features an IDE and it’s own ORM.

    (Sorry; it’s my bread and butter, so I couldn’t resist.)

  11. Blackadder says:

    I could see the Republicans picking up four or five Senate seats net (including Reid’s seat in Nevada). I don’t see any way to pick up ten.

  12. Todd says:

    1 and 2 are clearly wishful thinking bordering on fantasy. I could see a populist third party making some headway against the Dems and the GOP if things continued in a bad vein.

    3 is a no-brainer considering that practical un/underemployment is probably double that right now.

    As for #7, it would be even better, if not more wishful in thinking, to suppose some stability could return to either nation. The ultimate goal is to get out of these quagmires and eliminate political and social corruption. The one thing I’ll say is that at least we don’t have the blind (the GOP) leading the blind on that score.

    Nothing would make me happier than seeing #9 come through. In spades.

    #10 only shows why you ended up in law, not physics.

  13. Todd,

    I agree that “cold fusion” is not likely to ever amount to anything — though as I recall there was some mild hope of something along the lines of a “warm” fusion (compared to normal fusion reactions, that is); however I’m a little concerned that you keep using these “shows up why you ended up in law rather than physics” or “shows why you remain a lawyer rather than a judge” formulations on Donald.

    I’m not sure if you mean it that way, but many would take it as a very rude way of expressing your opinion. For isntance, if people frequently told you, “This of course shows why you’re only a parish music director rather than doing X”, you might well take that both as an insult to your current occuption and also to your general abilities.

  14. Dale Price says:

    1.-2. I think the GOP has a reasonable chance of flipping control of the House. Short of (God forbid) some kind of national calamity, I don’t see the Dems losing control of the Senate.

    3. I’m beginning to think 9% is optimistic.

    4. Your mouth to God’s ear. That would make life much easier for everyone.

    5. I hope so, but I don’t know. There have been a lot of positive noises, but it’s going to take a bishop or two to leap to make it a torrent. The Anglo Catholics seem to be in a holding pattern right now.

    6. This will be a certainty in 2011.

    7. Your mouth to God’s ear. Different people, different terrain. But still possible with resolute leadership, I’ll grant.

    8. A reasonable possibility, which could be borderline catastrophic if it’s California.

    9. I thought there already was one…. :). More seriously, I hope not. I like her, but she’s not ready.

    10. Any links/articles on the Navy stuff?

    11. If it’s not reported, does it make a sound?

    12. No! 😉

  15. Elaine Krewer says:

    “I would also not be surprised if a Catholic pro-abort political figure decides to recant his or her pro-abort stance.”

    If that does happen, I would expect it to occur among one of the “Blue Dog” Dems to which you refer — possibly in conjunction with him or her switching party affiliation to GOP or Independent like the Congressman in Alabama recently did (don’t recall his name off the top of my head).

    It might also occur to one or more of what I call the “soft” pro-aborts in both parties who are willing to vote in favor of some restrictions like a partial birth ban, no taxpayer funding, parental notification, etc. However, it WON’T be because his/her bishop barred that person from Communion.

    I expect a public communion ban or perhaps even a formal excommunication to be made against a “hard” pro-abort who vehemently opposes ANY restrictions on abortion. But, I don’t expect they will change their ways because of it. If anything, they will probably become even more entrenched in their views, because they can’t afford to look like they are “knuckling under” to the Church.

    Should any of the hard core pro-abort “Catholics” ever repent it probably won’t happen until after they retire from public life or get voted out of office.

  16. Blackadder says:

    I would also not be surprised if a Catholic pro-abort political figure decides to recant his or her pro-abort stance

    Has this ever happened? There are, I know, lots of examples of Catholic politicians going the other way, but I don’t know of any significant cases of Catholic pols becoming pro-life. There’s no margin in it if you’re a Democrat, and if you’re a pro-choice Catholic Republican you’re probably pretty firm in your view (Rudy is the only possible I could think of, and if he wasn’t willing to switch when running for President I don’t see why he would do it now).

  17. Elaine Krewer says:

    BA, you’re correct in that the only “converts” from pro-choice to pro-life that I can think of offhand — Mitt Romney, George H.W. Bush, and possibly also Ronald Reagan (who did sign a law legalizing abortion while governor of California) — were not Catholics.

    I do seem to recall, years ago, reading a Catholic News Service interview with former Gov. Hugh Carey of New York in which he admitted having been admonished about his pro-abortion stand by his bishop, and that it did eventually cause him to reconsider his views; but his “reconsideration” didn’t occur until some time after he had left office.

  18. Donald R. McClarey says:

    Dale, in regard to Cold Fusion and the Navy see the link below.

    Darwin, Todd’s comments do not bug me. I am used to dealing with people daily on a professional basis who could give him a seminar on rudeness. At any rate I find it refreshingly more honest than his “Peace” salutation that he used to use in each comment years ago on other venues on Saint Blog’s.

    As to the House flipping Todd once again shows his lack of familiarity with how the races are beginning to stack up.

    I expect a bad situation to get progressively worse for the Democrats as unemployment continues to stay high.

    I have made my Senate picks in a recent thread but I do not have time to look for them now. The Law calls.

  19. Donald R. McClarey says:

    Toomey in Pennsylvania BA. Granted he is a Republican, but he started out as a pro-abort Congressman and switched to being pro-life. He is a Catholic.

  20. Anthony says:

    I can imagine a scenario where the GOP takes the house and not the Senate.

    Any kind of new discovery that can be exploited by the private sector would be most welcome, cold fusion or otherwise.

    Unemployment will worsen and fear over the dollar will increase and become very real.

    Pope Benedict will continue to be a figure of controversey only for those whom Catholicism is a controversey.

    Agree that a few states will default. Maybe nations? Things will stay bad for Gordon Brown in the UK.

    Could the Global Warming/Climate Change nonsense continue to be exposed?

  21. Elaine Krewer says:

    I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that one of the Obama cabinet members to resign in 2010 will be Janet “The System Worked” Napolitano. The Detroit bombing will do for her what Katrina did for FEMA head Michael “Heckuva job, Brownie” Brown!

  22. Donald R. McClarey says:

    Good call Elaine. Obama seems to be in a “who will be the fall guy for this one?” mode.

    When we can’t keep a terrorist off a plane after we receive a credible warning from the fellow’s father, something is deeply wrong.

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