The live blog will start tonight at 6:00 PM Central Time. I will be listening to Fox due to Michael Barone who is the chief Fox election analyst, and who knows more about each Congressional District than anyone else alive, and browsing the internet to bring you the latest information. I ask TAC commenters and contributors to chime in with information and observations. The picture at the top of this blog will help you keep track of when polls close in each state. The image is from 2008, but I believe it is still accurate.
Nate Silver over at 538 has put together a handy sheet listing the crucial seats that the GOP needs to win to take the House. Go here to view it. This will be an indispensable aid as we watch the returns coming in.
I will attempt to stay with the liveblogging until control of the House is called. I am stocking up on pizza and pop to stay awake! The Senate may not be determined for a few days, as it may come down to what happens in California and Washington, and those races may be close.
Feel free to comment during the day in regard to any rumors that you hear. Detailed reports as to elections in the areas in which you live are welcome. I view this as a group project, and all assistance I receive from our TAC community will be welcome.
Oh, and political passions will doubtless be running high today and tonight, but let us remember that it is only politics and keep a sense of perspective about it. The issues in contention are important, but politics, and politicians, often go hand in hand with great absurdity.
One piece of sage advice from political wonk Jay Cost for today: “Oh, one more thing. Whatever you do today, ignore any and all leaked exit polls. They’re put out there with an agenda, which usually does not include making conservatives feel better. And they’re not the most accurate data points in the world. Just ask President John F. Kerry!“
4:25 PM: An intriguing tidbit of information: according to the Wall Street Journal, the Coons campaign in Delaware is concerned about lower voter turnout than they are comfortable with. This may simply be a tactic by the Coons campaign to get more Democrats to the polls, or it may be the first sign that Christine O’Donnell may pull off the election upset of the night.
5:35 PM: A good look at what races to keep an eye on hour by hour as the polls close is here at the Washington Examiner.
5:45 PM: Based upon the returns coming in thus far I am calling Indiana 8 for the Republican challenger Bucshon. First House seat to flip to the Republicans this evening.
6:00 PM: Indiana and Kentucky polls close and Fox calls the Senate races in Indiana and Kentucky for Coats and Paul. Bad news for the Democrats that the races were called so quickly, although the outcomes are not surprising.
6:27PM: The returns are still early, but it looks like the Republicans are having a very good night indeed in Indiana Congressional races.
6:30PM: Fox calls the Ohio Senate race for Republican Rob Portman. No surprise.
7:00PM: Fox calls the Senate race in Florida for Republican Marco Rubio. Crist can now slither off to oblivion. Connecticut and Delaware Senate races are called for the Democrats Blumenthal and Coons. Republicans Ayotte and Blunt take the Senate races in New Hampshire and Missouri.
7:12PM: Good interactive map here at Politico to keep track of the House races.
7:19PM: Florida 24 has been called by Fox. Republican Adams beats Democrat incumbent Kosmas. Delaware at large Congressional seat flips to the Democrats.
7:23PM: Fox calls the Senate race in North Carolina for Burr the Republican incumbent. He was thought to be in trouble earlier in the year, but he is in no trouble tonight.
7:30PM: Fox calls the Senate race in Arkansas for Republican Boozman. A Republican pickup, but no surprise. Fox calls for Va 5 for Republican Hurt. Another flip for the Republicans. Apparently Obama’s campaigning for Democrat Perriello did him little good.
7:35PM: Va 9 flips to the Republicans with the victory of Republican Griffith. Defeated Democrat Boucher had been in Congress for 28 years. Big loss for the Republicans in West Virginia. Fox calls the Senate race there for Democrat Manchin.
7:40PM: Oh this is satisfying: In Fla 8 Republican Daniel Webster defeats the psych Alan Grayson.
7:45PM: Big bellweather win in the House: Indiana 9 flips with the victory of Republican Young over 5 term incumbent Hill.
8:05PM: Fox calls the North Dakota Senate race for the Republican John Hoeven. A GOP pick up and no surprise.
8:12PM: Fox calls the House! Projects that the Republicans will gain approximately 60 seats in the House. If this is correct, this would be the largest swing in House votes since the Democrats took 75 seats in 1948.
8:18PM: Va 2 flips with victory of Republican Nye.
8:26PM: Barney Frank wins re-election in Ma4. More’s the pity. NH1 is flipped with the victory of Republican Guinta who was outspent 3-1 by Democrat Shea-Porter, one of the farthest Left members of Congress.
8:55PM: Since the House has been called, I will only report flips of particular interest. Based on what I am seeing, I believe the House gains will be north of 60.
9:00 PM: Fox calls the Pennsylvania governor race for Republican Corbett. Come on Toomey!
9:10 PM: GOP takes Pennsylvania House of Representatives.
9:12 PM: Wisconsin governorship goes to Republican Scott Walker.
9:31PM: Retired Colonel Allen West flips Florida 22 into the Republican column. One of three or four black Republican congressmen after this election. West is a fiery orator and he will make his presence known in the House.
9:35PM: Republican Nikki Haley becomes the governor of South Carolina, one of Sarah Palin’s mamma grizzlies. The GOP takes the Alabama legislature.
9:38PM: Republican Johnson defeats incumbent Senator Feingold in Wisconsin. Toomey takes the lead in the Pennsylvania Senate race, but it still is nip and tuck in the Keystone State.
9:50PM: Republican Cao loses in La2. Sad, but expected. I hope he runs for state wide office in Louisiana. He is an honest and principled politician, and we need him in public service.
9:53PM: The North Carolina legislature goes Republican for the first time since the Spanish-American War.
9:57PM: Rick Scott beats Alex Sink to become the next Republic governor of Florida. He will need to fumigate the statehouse after Charlie Crist decamps.
10:00PM: California goes Dem with Retread Moonbeam the next Governor and Senator Ma’am going back to the Senate.
10:31PM: With 96% of the vote in, Toomey has a 130,000 vote lead in the Pennsylvania Senate race. I’m calling it for him. That is a GOP pickup and the Senate gains a strong pro-life voice. Betty Martinez becomes the next Republican governor of New Mexico and the nation’s first Latina governor.
10:37PM: Kasich defeats Strickland for the Ohio statehouse and completes a Republican sweep in the Buckeye state.
10:52PM: I believe this evening warrants one of my guilty pleasures:
10:55PM: The GOP takes the Wisconsin legislature. The Pennsylvania Senate and Supreme Court goes Republican. A lot of “bitter-clingers” in the Keystone State tonight apparently.
11:05PM: GOP takes the Tennessee legislature. The wins that the Republicans are amassing in the state legislatures is the unreported story of the evening.
11:15PM: Kirk, the pro-abort RINO, defeats the pro-abort mobbed up banker Giannoulias in the Land of Lincoln in the Senate race.
11:57PM: Well, it approaches midnight and I am going to turn in. It looks like Harry Reid will be returned to the Senate and preside over a diminished Democrat majority. Buck has taken the lead in Colorado and I think he will win. California has been called for Boxer, but perhaps too soon. That race remains very close. It looks like the Republicans will gain 6 or 7 seats.
In the House, the GOP has taken it. We will have an idea how much of a majority they have tomorrow, but for now I’d say the Republicans will gain 60 plus seats.
In governorships, it looks like the Republicans will be holding around 32 statehouses.
State legislatures have been dropping to the GOP all evening. The Republicans are going to be controlling redistricting in much of the country.
The country has given a vote of no-confidence in the Obama administration and the Democrat Congress. Obama is now effectively a lame duck for the remainder of his term in office, and his days of getting a liberal agenda through Congress has come to a screeching halt. More thoughts and analysis in the days to come.