Wednesday, November 3, 2010 \PM\.\Wed\.
In the aftermath of the best electoral night for the Republicans since the age of flappers, I thought I would share a few reflections on some of the common memes that have sprouted up over the past 24 hours.
Evidently at about 4 in the morning CNN was running with a headline on their website that read “Split Decision.” Even less hopeless cases pondered why the GOP seemingly didn’t do as well in the Senate as it did in the House. While it’s true that there were some disappointing results in Nevada, Colorado, and West Virginia, the fact of the matter is the Republicans won 25 of the 37 contested Senatorial contests. Republicans had to defend 19 of their own seats and then win an additional ten in order to gain majority control of the Senate, a rather long-shot proposition to begin with. As it is the Republicans won two-thirds of all Senate contests, lost none of their own seats and picked up six in the process. That would be a good night by any measure. Read the rest of this entry »
Monday, November 1, 2010 \PM\.\Mon\.
I am certainly not ambitious enough to forecast all 435 House races, but Jim Geraghty of National Review is. Here is his roundup of all 435 races. He is predicting 76 Republican pickups, with 6 seats switching from Democrat to Republican, for a net Republican pickup of 70 seats.
I think the Republicans should net at least 60, though it’s really hard to pinpoint exactly how many seats the Republicans will have when all is said and done. The Gallup generic ballot puts the Republicans up double digits, which is just unprecedented. Alan Ambromowitz, a professor of mine at Emory, translates how many seats to expect the GOP to win based on the generic ballot total. A GOP margin of +10 would give them a net gain of 62 seats, and a 68-seat pickup if the margin is 12.
It’s also interesting to note that the highest number of seats the GOP held during the twelve years they recently had control of Congress was 231, and that was after the 2004 election (they held 230 after 1994). Therefore if the Republicans gain a net total of 54, they would have more seats than they’ve held at any point since 1946. They would have basically erased two elections worth of Democratic gains in one night. Amazing.
Friday, October 29, 2010 \PM\.\Fri\.
It’s unfathomable to think that Charlie Crist could possibly sink any lower in his desperate attempt to cling to power. Alas, Crist is doing his best to usurp Alan Grayson as the most despicable politician in the state of Florida.
Read the rest of this entry »
Friday, October 15, 2010 \AM\.\Fri\.
It’s good to know that the term “Beltway Bubble” applies beyond just the circular roadway a mile from my house out in the suburbs of Washington DC. It looks like there is another cocoon in another old dwelling of mine in the city of Atlanta, as evidenced by this bit of insanity from Cynthia Tucker. Ms. Tucker’s thesis is that President Obama’s political problems stem from trying too hard to cooperate with Republicans. Buckle yourselves in for a ride aboard the crazy train.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tuesday, October 5, 2010 \PM\.\Tue\.
Here’s an update to my post from last week. Doug Hoffman has just announced that he is dropping out of the NY-23 House race and has endorsed the Republican nominee Matt Doheny. His full statement is here.
“It was never my intention to split the Republican vote in the 23rd District. So today, I withdraw as a candidate from this race. Under New York State Election Law my name cannot be removed from the Conservative Party line on the ballot. However, I strongly urge and request that my supporters not vote for me and certainly not vote for the Democrat or Working Families Party candidate.
“Matt Doheny and I may have differed on some issues during the course of our primary race. Now, we must put those differences aside and do what is best for our nation. So today, I am asking all my supporters to cast their vote for Matt Doheny on Election Day, November 2nd.
Classy move, and I think the right one.
And yes, I need to work on my headline writing.